Published · By Jeff Brick, 2026 SDMLS President
Quick answer: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40% in Freddie Mac’s October 8 survey, its seventh straight weekly increase, after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. San Diego County prices are still climbing, with a $1,090,000 median in August, up 6.3% from a year earlier, while rents have been close to flat. For first-time buyers, that means renting is cheaper month to month right now, but buying still makes sense if you plan to stay, buy below the county median and have a plan to refinance if rates ease. Here’s how I’d think it through.
This week’s numbers at a glance
Mortgage rates: seven weekly increases in a row
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, up from 7.28% the week before and 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year fixed rose to 6.73%. According to Freddie Mac’s 2026 archive, the 30-year rate has gone up every week since August 20, when it stood at 6.65%, and it is now about 1.4 points above this year’s low of 5.98% in late February. Fox Business also called this the seventh straight weekly rise.
Freddie Mac weekly 30-year fixed, 2026
30-year rate: 7.40% and climbing
Freddie Mac PMMS · Oct. 8, 2026
Rates: now vs. a year ago
The Fed raised rates, and it meets again October 27–28
In its September 16 statement, the Fed raised the federal funds range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%. The vote was 12–0, and the statement noted that “inflation remains elevated”. The next decision comes at the October 27–28 meeting.
Hiring slowed sharply
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, with unemployment at 4.2%. A slower job market can eventually cool inflation and take some pressure off rates, but nobody should plan a purchase around a forecast.
San Diego prices are still rising
C.A.R.’s August report put the San Diego County median at $1,090,000, up 6.3% year over year, while sales fell 8.4%. Redfin’s county data, which uses a different method, shows the same pattern: a $961,781 median sale price, up 5.7%, with homes selling in a median of 28 days at 99.2% of list price. Pending sales fell 13.0% from a year earlier, which tells me buyers are pausing. There’s a reason I wrote why no two price estimates ever agree: the trend is what matters, and both sources agree on the direction.
C.A.R. median home price · August
San Diego County median: +6.3%
What this means for buyers
Higher rates are lowering what buyers can afford, but they are also giving you more room to negotiate. With pending sales down and sales volume off, more sellers are open to credits, repairs and rate buydowns. My advice: get fully underwritten preapproval, compare offers from at least three lenders, and look at listings that have been on the market longer than the 28-day median. Those sellers tend to be the most flexible.
What this means for sellers
Your equity is real. Prices are up about 6% year over year by both C.A.R. and Redfin measures. But today’s buyers are paying close to 7.4%, so they are price sensitive. Price for the market as it is now, not as it was in spring, and consider offering a credit the buyer can put toward a rate buydown. That often brings in more buyers than a straight price cut of the same size. Well-prepared homes in good condition still sell quickly; the median home sold at 99.2% of its asking price.
What this means for investors
Investors face a tougher spread this fall. Rents are roughly flat. Zillow puts the average San Diego rent at $3,115, up just $29 year over year, and Apartment List shows 0.0% annual rent growth for San Diego. Meanwhile, borrowing costs keep rising. Run the numbers on today’s rate, not the rate you hope to get later. If you want more detail on where the cash flow is, my fall condo-gap guide for investors covers it.
First-time buyers: the rent-vs-buy math at 7.4%
This is the week’s focus, because first-time buyers feel rate swings the most. Here are the numbers, kept simple.
The monthly gap
Take a home at the county median of $1,090,000 with 20% down, which leaves an $872,000 loan. At 7.40%, principal and interest come to about $6,038 a month. At last year’s 6.30%, the same loan would cost about $5,397, roughly $640 less. Both are well above the $3,115 average rent. (These are my own calculations for illustration only. They leave out taxes, insurance and HOA dues.)
P&I · $872,000 loan (20% down on $1.09M)
Own vs. rent: the monthly gap
Payments are Jeff Brick calculations and exclude taxes, insurance and HOA.
Why renting isn’t automatically the winner
- Equity and appreciation: Even after a 6.3% gain in the median price, an owner builds equity with every payment. A renter does not.
- Refinance option: If rates come down, you can refinance. You can’t go back and buy at last year’s prices.
- Entry point: Most first-time buyers don’t start at the county median. A condo, townhome or smaller detached home can shrink that gap a lot.
- Negotiating room: With slower sales, first-time buyers can ask for seller credits that would have been unthinkable in a bidding-war market.
The renter-to-buyer path
If buying doesn’t fit yet, use this time to get ready. Build your down payment, check your credit, and get preapproved so you know your real number. Then set a target payment that would make you comfortable buying. The renters who become buyers fastest are the ones who already know their number when the market moves.
Jeff’s take
I’ve worked in San Diego real estate since 1999, and I’ve seen higher rates than this. A rate with a 7 in front isn’t the end of the market; it’s a shift in who has the leverage. Right now, prepared buyers have more of it than they’ve had in a while. As the largest luxury apartment home leasing broker in Southern California, I also see what renters are doing right now: many are comparing high-rise living with ownership and asking smart questions about amenities, walkability and long-term costs. My job is to lay out both paths honestly so you can choose with confidence. That’s Million Dollar Service at All Price Points, whether your first place is a studio condo or something bigger.
Let’s run your numbers
Whether you’re a first-time buyer weighing rent against ownership, a seller deciding on timing, or an investor checking cap rates, I’ll put together a custom, data-backed plan for your situation. Call or text me at 858-324-4448 or start at jeffbrick.com.
FAQ
What is the current 30-year mortgage rate?
Freddie Mac’s October 8, 2026 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40% and the 15-year fixed at 6.73%.
Did the Federal Reserve raise rates in 2026?
Yes. On September 16, 2026, the Fed raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%. Its next meeting is October 27–28.
What is the median home price in San Diego County?
C.A.R. reported a $1,090,000 median for August 2026, up 6.3% year over year. Redfin’s August median sale price was $961,781, up 5.7%.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in San Diego right now?
Month to month, renting usually costs less. Zillow’s average rent is $3,115, while principal and interest on an $872,000 loan at 7.40% is about $6,038. Buying builds equity and gives you the option to refinance later, so the right answer depends on how long you’ll stay and what you buy.
Should first-time buyers wait for rates to drop?
Waiting is a bet that rates will fall faster than prices rise. In August, prices were still up about 6%. A better plan is to get preapproved now, shop more than one lender, negotiate for seller credits, and refinance if rates fall.
Jeff Brick is a San Diego REALTOR® at Compass (DRE# 02156850), the 2026 President of the San Diego Multiple Listing Service, a 2024–2026 Board Director of the San Diego Association of REALTORS®, and the largest luxury apartment home leasing broker in Southern California. Statistics come from the sources linked above as of October 12, 2026. Payment examples are illustrations only and are not a loan offer.
