Published · By Jeff Brick, 2026 SDMLS President
Quick answer: San Diego is still a hard market for first-time buyers, but not a closed one. In Q2 2026 31% of San Diego County households could afford an entry-level home, according to C.A.R. The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.40% on October 8, up from 6.30% a year ago. The best openings are in condos and townhomes, where the county median is $670,000 with 4.0 months of supply, and in neighborhoods like City Heights, Santee and Chula Vista.
Last week I looked at the condo gap through an investor’s eyes. This week I want to stand on the other side of the table, with the renter who is wondering whether 2026 is the year to finally own. That is most of San Diego, by the way. RentCafe estimates that about 53% of city households rent.
Where first-time buyers stand this fall
The California Association of REALTORS® tracks a first-time buyer index built on an entry-level home rather than the overall median. For San Diego County in Q2 2026, that benchmark price was $913,750, with a monthly payment of $5,860 and a minimum qualifying income of $175,800. Affordability was 31%, the same as a year earlier and down from 34% in Q1. Statewide, 48% of households could afford an entry-level condo or townhome.
C.A.R. first-time buyer affordability
San Diego households that can afford an entry-level home
Nationally, the picture is similar. The National Association of REALTORS® reported that first-time buyers made up a record-low 21% of buyers, with a median age of 40 and a typical down payment of 10%. NAR deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz put it plainly: “Today’s first-time buyers are building less housing wealth.” The longer the wait, the bigger that gap gets.
Rent vs. own: the honest math
Here is the comparison I run with every renter who asks. RentCafe’s average San Diego two-bedroom rents for $3,351 (updated September 30). Now take the county’s $670,000 median condo with the 10% down payment NAR says is typical for first-time buyers. That is a $603,000 loan. At 7.40%, principal and interest come to about $4,175 a month by my math. At last year’s 6.30%, the same loan would be about $3,732.
Rent vs. own, monthly
Average 2-bedroom rent vs. a median-priced condo
Principal and interest only, 10% down, Jeff Brick calculation.
So owning costs more each month, before HOA dues, property taxes and insurance. What you get for the difference is a fixed principal and interest payment, equity and a home nobody can sell out from under you. Rents are not running away either: Apartment List’s October report shows the city’s median rent up just 0.5% in a year, and RentCafe shows the average up 2.3%. That gives renters time to plan instead of panic.
Four neighborhoods worth a first look
These figures come from Redfin’s August 2026 zip code data, which covers all home types. Small areas swing with the mix of homes that sell, so read them as direction.
City Heights (92105)
The median sale price was $740,000, up 9.6%, and 52.8% of homes sold above list price. It is the lowest median of the four and the most competitive at the door, so come pre-approved and ready.
Santee (92071)
The median was $787,159, down 1.9%, with 150 homes sold and a 21-day median time on market. Steady volume means steady choice, and 31.0% of listings had a price drop.
Chula Vista (91910)
The median was $819,645, down 3.6%, while sales jumped 36.8% to 108 homes. RentCafe puts Chula Vista’s average rent at $2,647, so the rent-to-own jump is real but worth measuring.
Clairemont (92117)
The stretch option. The median was $1,159,498, up 12.7%, and homes sold in a median of 15 days. North Clairemont rents average $2,447. Many buyers here start with a condo or townhome and move up later.
Redfin · August 2026 · All home types
Median sale price in four first-buyer neighborhoods
Percentages are year-over-year change.
What this means for first-time buyers
- Start with condos and townhomes. Attached inventory is 2,734 homes, up 5.8%, and sellers received 97.2% of original list price in September. That is room to negotiate.
- Ask for credits, not just a lower price. A seller credit toward a rate buydown can lower your payment more than a small price cut. Have your lender price both.
- Get fully underwritten early. In City Heights and Santee, more than half of homes sold above list. Speed matters there.
- Read the HOA before you fall in love. Dues, reserves and insurance can change your monthly number a lot.
- Plan for today’s rate. C.A.R.’s 2027 forecast assumes a 6.6% average rate next year. Treat any refinance as a bonus, not a plan.
What this means for sellers
Your most likely buyer at the entry level is a renter making their first move, and that buyer is payment-sensitive. Countywide, September closed sales fell 14.0% and pending sales fell 15.9%, according to the Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS®. Price to today’s payment, offer a credit before you are asked, and make the home move-in ready. Detached sellers still have the stronger hand with just 2.4 months of supply.
What this means for investors
First-time buyers and investors are shopping the same condo shelf. With rents growing slowly and rates at 7.40%, investors need a disciplined purchase price, which keeps some of the competition away from owner-occupants. If you own a starter condo, today’s renter-turned-buyer may be your best exit.
Freddie Mac PMMS · 30-year fixed
Eight weeks of rising mortgage rates
Why are rates rising? The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and Freddie Mac’s average has climbed every week since late August. Freddie Mac publishes a new reading every Thursday, including a fresh one later today, so check the latest before you lock.
Jeff’s take
I have helped San Diegans buy their first homes since 1999, and the path almost always starts as a renter. As the largest luxury apartment home leasing broker in Southern California, I also see what renters are doing right now: comparing their lease renewal with a mortgage payment and asking whether waiting is really cheaper. Sometimes renting another year is the smart move. Sometimes a well-negotiated condo in Santee or Chula Vista beats it. The only wrong answer is the one you never put on paper.
As 2026 President of the San Diego MLS, I read these numbers the day they come out. Everyone is welcome at my table, whoever you are and whoever you come home to.
Let’s build your renter-to-owner plan
You deserve Million Dollar Service at All Price Points, and that includes your very first home. Call or text me at 858-324-4448 or visit JeffBrick.com. I will compare your current rent with real listings in the neighborhoods you love and show you the numbers side by side.
Jeff Brick, REALTOR® | Compass | DRE# 02156850 | 2026 President, San Diego Multiple Listing Service | 2024–2026 Board of Directors, San Diego Association of REALTORS® | The largest luxury apartment home leasing broker in Southern California
Frequently asked questions
Can first-time buyers afford a home in San Diego in 2026?
Some can. C.A.R. found that 31% of San Diego County households could afford an entry-level home in Q2 2026, with a minimum qualifying income of $175,800.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in San Diego right now?
Renting is cheaper month to month. The average two-bedroom rents for $3,351, while principal and interest on a $670,000 condo with 10% down at 7.40% is about $4,175. Buying builds equity and locks in your payment.
Which San Diego neighborhoods are best for first-time buyers?
City Heights, Santee and Chula Vista had August medians between $740,000 and $819,645 in Redfin’s data. Condos and townhomes across the county are another strong starting point at a $670,000 median.
How much do first-time buyers usually put down?
NAR reports a typical first-time buyer down payment of 10%. Many loan programs allow less, so ask your lender about every option.
What are mortgage rates in San Diego this week?
Freddie Mac’s national 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier. Your rate depends on your credit, loan type and down payment.
Payment examples are my own illustrations for principal and interest only. They are not a loan offer or financial advice. Market data comes from the sources linked above and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Please consult a licensed lender and financial advisor for your situation.
