Published · By Jeff Brick, 2026 SDMLS President
Quick answer: San Diego heads into the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% (Freddie Mac, Oct. 15, 2026), up from 6.27% a year ago, and September inflation running at 3.7%. Even so, the county’s detached median price rose 5.8% to $1,079,000. For luxury buyers, the quiet headline is that jumbo loans are pricing at or slightly below conforming loans right now. That makes this a good moment for well-prepared high-end buyers to negotiate, and for sellers to price with precision.
What happened this week in rates and the economy
The Fed is in hiking mode, and it meets again next week
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, a unanimous 12–0 vote. It was the first hike since July 2023. The Fed’s own statement put it plainly: “Inflation remains elevated.” The next decision comes at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the press conference on the 28th.
Inflation came in hot
Consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% forecast, and confirmed by RealEstateNews. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 2.6%. Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel summed up the mood: “We are in ‘when’ not ‘if’ territory” for the next hike (via RealEstateNews).
Mortgage rates are holding, not falling
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average held at 7.40% for the second straight week, while the 15-year slipped to 6.71%. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending Oct. 9 showed the 30-year conforming rate at 7.50%, with jumbo loans at 7.49%. Purchase applications fell 4% for the week and were 16% below a year ago.
Freddie Mac PMMS · Oct 15, 2026
Mortgage rates: now vs. a year ago
What it means for San Diego home prices
Here is the part that surprises people. Higher rates have not knocked down San Diego’s single-family prices. According to the San Diego MLS September 2026 Monthly Indicators (data as of Oct. 5):
- Detached median price: $1,079,000, up 5.8% from $1,020,000
- Attached (condo/townhome) median: $670,000, down 0.2%
- Detached inventory: 2,950 homes, down 12.9%, or 2.4 months of supply
- Attached inventory: 2,734 homes, up 5.8%, or 4.0 months of supply
- Closed sales: 1,112 detached (down 13.9%) and 625 attached (down 14.0%)
Fewer homes are selling, but the single-family homes that do sell are holding their value because so few are for sale. Condos tell a different, softer story.
Sept 2025 vs. Sept 2026
San Diego County median sales price
This week’s niche: luxury living
Jumbo financing is not the penalty it used to be
For a long time, borrowing above the conforming limit meant paying more. Right now, the MBA’s survey has jumbo loans (above $832,750) at 7.49% versus 7.50% for conforming loans. For buyers in La Jolla, Del Mar, Point Loma, Coronado or Rancho Santa Fe, that means your loan size is not the obstacle. Your preparation is. Lenders still expect strong reserves and clean documentation on jumbo loans, so start that conversation early.
The real cost of waiting
Using the county’s median detached price and Freddie Mac’s rates, I ran a simple estimate: with 20% down, principal and interest on September 2025’s median of $1,020,000 at 6.27% was about $5,035 a month. This September’s $1,079,000 median at 7.40% is about $5,977, or roughly $942 more. That is an illustration, not a loan quote, and it leaves out taxes, insurance and HOA dues. In luxury price bands the dollars scale up quickly, which is exactly why negotiating seller credits for a rate buydown can matter more than shaving the price.
Principal & interest · 20% down · 30-yr fixed
Estimated payment on the median house
Illustration only, not a loan quote. About $942 more per month. Excludes taxes, insurance and HOA.
Luxury condos and high-rise living
Attached homes took 44 days on market until sale in September, versus 37 for detached homes, with 4.0 months of supply. For buyers who want downtown, Little Italy or Bankers Hill high-rise living, that is real leverage: more choice, more time and more room to negotiate.
San Diego County · September 2026
Supply and speed: detached vs. attached
For buyers
- Don’t try to time the Fed. A hike next week is possible, and mortgage rates often move before the Fed acts. Get fully underwritten now so you can move when the right home appears.
- Use the condo market’s leverage. With 4.0 months of supply, ask for credits, repairs or a rate buydown.
- Compare 15-year and adjustable options with your lender. The 15-year is running about 0.7 points below the 30-year.
For sellers
- Single-family sellers still have the upper hand with 2.4 months of supply, but buyers are payment-sensitive. Price for today’s 7.40% buyer, not last spring’s.
- Offer a rate buydown instead of a price cut. It often helps a buyer’s monthly payment more than an equal price reduction.
- Condo sellers: presentation and pricing need to be sharp, because your buyers have choices.
For investors
- Rents are still edging up. Zillow’s San Diego average rent was $3,132 as of Oct. 15, up $47 from a year ago, with 6,005 rentals listed.
- Run the numbers at today’s rates. At 7%-plus financing, cash flow on condos is tight, so the softer attached prices and longer days on market are where your negotiating edge lives. My condo gap investor guide goes deeper.
Jeff’s take
I’ve been through enough rate cycles since 1999 to know that the headline is rarely the whole story. Yes, rates are high and the Fed may hike again. But San Diego’s single-family values are still climbing, jumbo money is priced like conforming money, and condo buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in a while. As the largest luxury apartment home leasing broker in Southern California, I also see what renters are doing right now: many high-rise renters are watching this market closely and preparing to buy when the numbers line up. If that’s you, my recent rent-or-buy breakdown is a good next read. My advice for luxury buyers and sellers is the same: be prepared, be precise, and negotiate on the monthly payment, not only the price.
Let’s talk about your next move
Whether you’re buying in La Jolla, selling in Kensington, or moving from a downtown high-rise lease into ownership, I’ll bring Million Dollar Service at All Price Points to your search. Call or text me at 858-324-4448 or visit jeffbrick.com.
FAQ
What are mortgage rates in San Diego right now?
Freddie Mac’s national 30-year fixed average was 7.40% on Oct. 15, 2026, and the 15-year was 6.71%. Your actual rate depends on credit, down payment and loan type.
Will the Fed raise rates on October 28, 2026?
No one knows yet. The Fed raised rates in September, and September inflation came in at 3.7%, which keeps another hike on the table at the Oct. 27–28 meeting.
Are San Diego home prices still going up?
For single-family homes, yes. The county’s detached median was $1,079,000 in September 2026, up 5.8% from a year earlier. The condo and townhome median was essentially flat at $670,000.
Are jumbo loans more expensive than conforming loans right now?
Not by much. In the MBA’s survey for the week ending Oct. 9, jumbo loans averaged 7.49% and conforming loans 7.50%. Jumbo approval standards are still stricter.
Is it a good time to buy a luxury condo in San Diego?
Buyers have more leverage in the condo market, with 4.0 months of supply and 44 days on market until sale in September. Whether it’s right for you depends on your payment comfort and how long you plan to stay.
Jeff Brick is a San Diego REALTOR® at Compass (DRE# 02156850), 2026 President of the San Diego Multiple Listing Service, a 2024–2026 Board Director of the San Diego Association of REALTORS®, and the largest luxury apartment home leasing broker in Southern California. This article is general information, not financial or legal advice.
